LB Takeaway | Alibaba has 120% upside after plans for a dual primary listing in HK?
发布时间:2025-07-27
CITIC Securities: Maintain Alibaba-SW "Buy" rating, target price of HK $160
If calculated at today's closing price, this price means that there is still 58% room for growth!
The bank believes that after the dual main listing, the company is expected to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which will further expand the investor base, bring more inflows of active and passive funds from the south, and supplement more liquidity. In the long run, Alibaba will remain an important participant in China's digital intelligence process. When the external environment improves, the company's technology investment value is expected to be re-recognized. The bank maintains a relatively optimistic attitude towards the company's medium- and long-term digital business service capabilities.
Morgan Stanley: Maintain Kuaishou "overweight" rating, target price of HK $100
If calculated at today's closing price of HK $84.65, this price means that there is still 18% room for growth!
The bank noted that Kuaishou's operating and financial performance has improved since its restructuring in the second half of last year, narrowing the gap with Douyin.
The bank believes that Kuaishou's momentum is expected to continue over the next six to 12 months, driven by a small improvement in the audience, allowing the group's revenue growth and operating profit to begin an upward adjustment cycle after bottoming out in the second quarter of this year.
The bank expects Kuaishou to be more profitable than its peers in the long run. It is expected that the group will break even next year and its gross profit will expand faster than its peers.
Bank of America: Maintain "Buy" rating on HKEx, target price of HK $430
Based on today's closing price of HK $367.4, this price means that there is still 17% room for growth!
The bank believes that the time for Ali to be included in Southbound Connect has not yet been implemented, and it may take six months. If Ali converts all its shares, the transaction of Hong Kong stocks will increase by 4%; since Ali's ADR is based on market value, it will create a precedent, and it is expected that more US-listed Chinese concept stocks ADR will follow suit.
Goldman Sachs: Maintain "Buy" rating on HKEx, target price of HK $475
If calculated at today's closing price, this price means that there is still 29% room for growth!
The bank has been emphasizing the trend of more US Depositary Receipts (ADRs) turning secondary listings into primary listings. Assuming that all Chinese ADRs are fully transferred from the US to Hong Kong, China, the bank estimates that the average daily transaction will increase by HK $34 billion.
The bank said that the potential impact of Ali's plan on the average daily transaction mainly depends on whether the stock is included in the interconnected cross-border distribution. The bank mentioned that after Xiaomi and Meituan were included in the interconnected cross-border distribution, the average daily transaction of the two increased by more than 80%, while the transaction speed of Chinese mainland investors in the Hong Kong market is generally twice the normal transaction speed.
In addition, Bilibili also has a similar plan to change from a second listing to a dual main listing, which is expected to be completed in October this year. Taking Li Auto Inc. and Xiaopeng, which have chosen to be dual-listed when they were listed in Hong Kong and involve the same share and different rights structure, as an example, it usually takes 6 months and 20 trading days to be included in Nanxiangtong. If the same share and different rights are not involved, Zaiding Pharmaceutical is included in Nanxiangtong relatively fast.
Citi: Maintain Alibaba's "Buy" rating, target price of $172
If calculated at yesterday's closing price of $101.44, this price means that there is still 70% room for growth!
The bank noted that Alibaba's application for a major listing in Hong Kong is an important shift in market sentiment that will attract more capital to Alibaba and other Chinese technology and Internet stocks in the future.
The bank said a smooth transition to Alibaba's listing status could set a similar transition roadmap for American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), which already have dual listing status in Hong Kong, and could attract ADRs that have not returned to seek a major listing in Hong Kong.
UBS: Maintains Walmart's "Buy" rating, lowers price target by 8% to $152 from $165
Based on yesterday's closing price of $121.98, this price means that there is still 25% room for growth!
The bank said Walmart lowered its second-quarter financial forecast because it misjudged last year's growth in part due to stimulus measures and consumer inflation that squeezed out consumer spending on discretionary items. However, the bank added that Walmart expects positive progress in clearing excess inventory by the third quarter, which should put the company in a better position for the holidays and the rest of the year.
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